Tom's Thoughts

August edition 2008

Indiana’s population has continued to grow since the 2000 Census although county-by-county estimates for July 1, 2007 show uneven changes and some interesting patterns.

The U.S. Census data on Hoosier population comes from this summer’s edition of the Indiana Business Review, a publication of the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business.

Overall, Indiana’s population is estimated at 6.35 million for July of 2007, about a 3.5% increase over the 6.14 million population estimate at the 2000 census.  As usual, some counties gained population, some lost and some did not change much.

St, Joseph County is in the latter category, having an estimated population of 266,088 at mid-2007, a gain of only 529 residents or .0.2 percent since 2000. Even with the modest gain St. Joseph kept its standing as fourth most populated county in Indiana although fast-growing Hamilton just north of Indianapolis is on pace to jump from fifth to fourth place by the 2010 census.

Hamilton County has added 78,921 residents since 2000, an increase of 43.2 per cent and had an estimated population of 261,661 at July 1, 2007

Hamilton County jumped over Elkhart as fifth most populated county, despite Elkhart’s 8.3 percent increase in population to 197,942.

The 20 most populated of Indiana’s 92 counties account for 4.14 million people, or 65.3 percent of the state’s estimated 6.35 million residents.  Those same twenty counties accounted for 64.3 percent of the state’s population in 2000.

 Seventeen of the 20 largest counties added population since 2000 with St. Joseph having the smallest increase among the growing counties. LaPorte County’s population, ranked 15th largest, decreased  by an estimated 0.3 percent to 109,787.

By contrast, 13 of the 20 smallest Hoosier counties experienced population decreases since 2000, continuing a shift away from rural to urban areas.

Delving into the population changes more closely reveals some interesting trends and results.

Total population is determined by natural increase, (births over deaths) and net migration (people moving into or out of a particular area).

The five “donut” counties surrounding Indianapolis were among the areas experiencing the highest percentage and net migration increases in the state. 

While Marion had a numerical increase of 16,350 residents since 2000, it experienced a net migration of minus 31,235 residents since 2000, the largest negative migration in the state. By contrast, Hamilton and Hendricks experienced a positive net migration of 55,047 and 24,818 residents, respectively.

St. Joseph County, ranked sixth in natural population increase, had the second most negative migration at 8,666. Lake County had a negative migration of 6,236 while adjacent Porter County had a positive net migration of 9,356.

Why do people move?

The U.S. Census Bureau splits reasons into four broad categories: family-related, employment-related, housing-related and other.

A 2006 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Census Bureau’s Population Survey showed that 33 per cent of movers  from one county to another were employment-related.

The Indiana Business Report cites declining manufacturing employment as a key factor.  St. Joseph County , with a significant minus migration since 2000, lost 1,400 manufacturing jobs from 2001 to 2006 whereas Elkhart County gained about 8,700 manufacturing jobs over the same period, according to the report.

So what does this all mean?  A lot.

Jobs, good ones, largely determine an area’s population.  And population estimates and trends largely determine public funding and planning for schools, infrastructure, transportation, development, housing and other quality of life issues.

The same issue of Indiana Business Report presented a lot of data of on Indiana’s population projection through 2040.

Overall the state’s population is expected to grow by 15 percent to over 7 million.  The area around Indianapolis, especially the “donut” counties, are expected to grow by more than 30 percent.

A pocket of plus 30 percent growth is in Elkhart and LaGrange counties, while Allen (Fort Wayne) and Adams counties to the east are projected to grow by  20.1 to 30 percent by 2040.

St. Joseph County is expected to be among 65 of Indiana’s 92 counties expected to grow during that time span, but St. Joe’s projected increase is between 0 and 10 percent.            

These projections are based on recent birth, death and migration trends.  They may well change, especially in northern Indiana.

Will our community significantly benefit from the technology research effort at Notre Dame and the growth of this community as a regional medical care center?  Will manufacturing and economic development trends change in St. Joseph County?

Will Elkhart County continue to attract manufacturing jobs?  How will the recreational vehicle industry perform in an era of high oil prices?

Manufacturing jobs affect the entire region. The recent loss of  1,430  Monaco jobs in the area involved 699 workers who live in Elkhart County, 297 in St. Joseph, 191 in Marshall and 115 in Kosciusko.

It will be important to be on top of population data and trends.  The makeup of our community, and the housing needed to serve our residents, will depend on it.

Sincerely,
Tom Gruber - Government Relations Liaison

Click here to download Valuation report
for Mishawaka/St. Joseph County